Human Consequences of Multiple Nuclear Detonations in New Delhi (India): Interdisciplinary Requirements in Triage Management.

The human casualties from simulated nuclear detonation scenarios in New Delhi, India are analyzed, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments and the theoretical application of a nuclear-specific triage system with significant innovation in interdisciplinary disaster management applicable generally to urban nuclear detonation medical response. Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for New Delhi, India for single and multiple (six) 25 kt detonations and a single 1 mt (1000 kt) detonation. Major issues related to the emergency management of a nuclear incident are discussed with specific recommendations for improvement. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Of particular importance is the interdisciplinary cooperation necessary for such a large-scale emergency response event, which would be exemplified by efforts such as the application of a Nuclear Global Health Workforce.

The nursing profession: a critical component of the growing need for a nuclear global health workforce.

BACKGROUND: Instability in the global geopolitical climate and the continuing spread of nuclear weapons and increase in their lethality has made the exchange of nuclear weapons or a terrorist attack upon a nuclear power plant a serious issue that demands appropriate planning for response. In response to this threat, the development of a nuclear global health workforce under the technical expertise of the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organization Radiation Emergency Medical Preparedness and Assistance Network has been proposed. MAIN BODY OF THE ABSTRACT: As the largest component of the global healthcare workforce, nurses will play a critical role in both the leadership and health care effectiveness of a response to any public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) resulting from the unprecedented numbers of trauma, thermal burn, and radiation affected patients that will require extensive involvement of the nursing professional community. SHORT CONCLUSION: Lives can and will be saved if nurses are present. The clinical care of radiation contaminated patients (e.g. radiation burns, fluid management, infection control), thermal burn patients, and other health system response activities such as community screening for radiation exposure, triage, decontamination, administration of medical countermeasures and the provision of supportive emotional and mental health care will be overwhelmingly nurse intensive.

Lessons from Hawaii: A Blessing in Disguise.

On January 13, 2018, Hawaii experienced an erroneous alert that falsely warned of an imminent ballistic missile strike. Rather than focus on the inconvenience caused by the false alert, we used reporting of the event to identify the missing elements that would characterize a system that could save lives by alerting and informing the public in a nuclear detonation. These include warnings that contain essential information rather than directing recipients to secondary sources; a system that issues alerts directly from federal agencies that will have the earliest warning; a robust multimodal alerting system that can deliver messages before and after the detonation; and swift activation of federal agencies immediately upon warning.

The Potential Impact of Border Security Upon Prevalence of Infectious Disease.

In the U.S., migration has been documented to affect the prevalence of infectious disease. As a mitigation entity, border security has been recorded by numerous scholarly works as being essential to the support of the health of the U.S. population. Consequently, the lack of current health care monitoring of the permeable U.S. border places the U.S. population at risk in the broad sectors of infectious disease and interpersonal violence. Visualizing border security in the context of public health mitigation has significant potential to protect migrant health as well as that of all populations on both sides of the border. Examples of how commonly this philosophy is held can be found in the expansive use of security-focused terms regarding public health. Using tools such as GIS to screen for disease in people before their entrance into a nation would be more efficient and ethical than treating patients once they have entered a population and increased the impact on the healthcare system. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:554-562).

Readiness for Radiological and Nuclear Events among Emergency Medical Personnel.

BACKGROUND: Among medical providers, even though radiological and nuclear events are recognized as credible threats, there is a lack of knowledge and fear about the medical consequences among medical personnel which could significantly affect the treatment of patients injured and/or contaminated in such scenarios. This study was conducted to evaluate the relative knowledge, willingness to respond, and familiarity with nuclear/radiological contamination risks among U.S. and Japanese emergency medical personnel. METHODS: An institutional review board-approved anonymous paper survey was distributed at various medical and disaster conferences and medicine courses in Japan and in the U.S. The surveys were written in Japanese and English and collected information on the following four categories: generalized demographics, willingness to manage, knowledge of disaster systems, and contamination risks. RESULTS: A total of 418 surveys were completed and collected. Demographics showed that physicians and prehospital responders were the prevalent survey responders. The majority of responders, despite self-professed disaster training, were still very uncomfortable with and unaware how to respond to a radiological/nuclear event. CONCLUSION: Despite some educational coverage in courses and a limited number of disaster events, it is concluded that there is a lack of comfort and knowledge regarding nuclear and radiological events among the medical community. It is recommended that considerable development and subsequent distribution is needed to better educate and prepare the medical community for inevitable upcoming radiological/nuclear events.

Developing a Nuclear Global Health Workforce Amid the Increasing Threat of a Nuclear Crisis.

This study argues that any nuclear weapon exchange or major nuclear plant meltdown, in the categories of human systems failure and conflict-based crises, will immediately provoke an unprecedented public health emergency of international concern. Notwithstanding nuclear triage and management plans and technical monitoring standards within the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Health Organization (WHO), the capacity to rapidly deploy a robust professional workforce with the internal coordination and collaboration capabilities required for large-scale nuclear crises is profoundly lacking. A similar dilemma, evident in the early stages of the Ebola epidemic, was eventually managed by using worldwide infectious disease experts from the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network and multiple multidisciplinary WHO-supported foreign medical teams. This success has led the WHO to propose the development of a Global Health Workforce. A strategic format is proposed for nuclear preparedness and response that builds and expands on the current model for infectious disease outbreak currently under consideration. This study proposes the inclusion of a nuclear global health workforce under the technical expertise of the International Atomic Energy Agency and WHO's Radiation Emergency Medical Preparedness and Assistance Network leadership and supported by the International Health Regulations Treaty. Rationales are set forth for the development, structure, and function of a nuclear workforce based on health outcomes research that define the unique health, health systems, and public health challenges of a nuclear crisis. Recent research supports that life-saving opportunities are possible, but only if a rapidly deployed and robust multidisciplinary response component exists.

A benchmark system to optimize our defense against an attack on the US food supply using the Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program.

OBJECTIVE: A predictive system was developed and tested in a series of exercises with the objective of evaluating the preparedness and effectiveness of the multiagency response to food terrorism attacks. DESIGN: A computerized simulation model, Risk Reduction Effectiveness and Capabilities Assessment Program (RRECAP), was developed to identify the key factors that influence the outcomes of an attack and quantify the relative reduction of such outcomes caused by each factor. SETTING: The model was evaluated in a set of Tabletop and Full-Scale Exercises that simulate biological and chemical attacks on the food system. PARTICIPANTS: More than 300 participants representing more than 60 federal, state, local, and private sector agencies and organizations. RESULTS: The exercises showed that agencies could use RRECAP to identify and prioritize their advance preparation to mitigate such attacks with minimal expense. RRECAP also demonstrated the relative utility and limitations of the ability of medical resources to treat patients if responders do not recognize and mitigate the attack rapidly, and the exercise results showed that proper advance preparation would reduce these deficiencies. CONCLUSIONS: Using computer simulation prediction of the medical outcomes of food supply attacks to identify optimal remediation activities and quantify the benefits of various measures provides a significant tool to agencies in both the public and private sector as they seek to prepare for such an attack.

Examining roles pharmacists assume in disasters: a content analytic approach.

OBJECTIVE: Numerous practice reports recommend roles pharmacists may adopt during disasters. This study examines the peer-reviewed literature for factors that explain the roles pharmacists assume in disasters and the differences in roles and disasters when stratified by time. METHODS: Quantitative content analysis was used to gather data consisting of words and phrases from peer-reviewed pharmacy literature regarding pharmacists' roles in disasters. Negative binomial regression and Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric models were applied to the data. RESULTS: Pharmacists' roles in disasters have not changed significantly since the 1960s. Pharmaceutical supply remains their preferred role, while patient management and response integration roles decrease in context of common, geographically widespread disasters. Policy coordination roles, however, significantly increase in nuclear terrorism planning. CONCLUSIONS: Pharmacists' adoption of nonpharmaceutical supply roles may represent a problem of accepting a paradigm shift in nontraditional roles. Possible shortages of personnel in future disasters may change the pharmacists' approach to disaster management.

Nuclear war between Israel and Iran: lethality beyond the pale.

BACKGROUND: The proliferation of nuclear technology in the politically volatile Middle East greatly increases the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear war. It is widely accepted, while not openly declared, that Israel has nuclear weapons, and that Iran has enriched enough nuclear material to build them. The medical consequences of a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel in the near future are envisioned, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments. METHODS: Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. Further development for thermal burn casualties was based on Brode, as modified by Binninger, to calculate thermal fluence. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. RESULTS: Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for three Israeli and eighteen Iranian cities. Nuclear weapon detonations in the densely populated cities of Iran and Israel will result in an unprecedented millions of numbers of dead, with millions of injured suffering without adequate medical care, a broad base of lingering mental health issues, a devastating loss of municipal infrastructure, long-term disruption of economic, educational, and other essential social activity, and a breakdown in law and order. CONCLUSIONS: This will cause a very limited medical response initially for survivors in Iran and Israel. Strategic use of surviving medical response and collaboration with international relief could be expedited by the predicted casualty distributions and locations. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Any rational analysis of a nuclear war between Iran and Israel reveals the utterly unacceptable outcomes for either nation.

Medical lessons learned from chernobyl relative to nuclear detonations and failed nuclear reactors.

The Chernobyl disaster in 1986 involved the largest airborne release of radioactivity in history, more than 100 times as much radioactivity as the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs together. The resulting emergency response, administrative blunders, and subsequent patient outcomes from this large-scale radiological disaster provide a wealth of information and valuable lessons for those who may find themselves having to deal with the staggering consequences of nuclear war. Research findings, administrative strategies (successful and otherwise), and resulting clinical procedures from the Chernobyl experience are reviewed to determine a current utility in addressing the appropriate protocols for a medical response to nuclear war. As various myths are still widely associated with radiation exposure, attention is given to the realities of a mass casualty medical response as it would occur with a nuclear detonation.

Nuclear war in the Middle East: where is the voice of medicine and public health.

Once again, the politically volatile Middle East and accompanying rhetoric has escalated the risk of a major nuclear exchange. Diplomatic efforts have failed to make the medical consequences of such an exchange a leading element in negotiations. The medical and academic communities share this denial. Without exaggeration, the harsh reality of the enormous consequences of an imminently conceivable nuclear war between Iran and Israel will encompass an unprecedented millions of dead and an unavoidable decline in public health and environmental devastation that would impact major populations in the Middle East for decades to come. Nuclear deterrence and the uncomfortable but real medical and public health consequences must become an integral part of a broader global health diplomacy that emphasizes health security along with poverty reduction and good governance.

A consensus-based educational framework and competency set for the discipline of disaster medicine and public health preparedness.

BACKGROUND: Various organizations and universities have developed competencies for health professionals and other emergency responders. Little effort has been devoted to the integration of these competencies across health specialties and professions. The American Medical Association Center for Public Health Preparedness and Disaster Response convened an expert working group (EWG) to review extant competencies and achieve consensus on an educational framework and competency set from which educators could devise learning objectives and curricula tailored to fit the needs of all health professionals in a disaster. METHODS: The EWG conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed and non-peer reviewed published literature. In addition, after-action reports from Hurricane Katrina and relevant publications recommended by EWG members and other subject matter experts were reviewed for congruencies and gaps. Consensus was ensured through a 3-stage Delphi process. RESULTS: The EWG process developed a new educational framework for disaster medicine and public health preparedness based on consensus identification of 7 core learning domains, 19 core competencies, and 73 specific competencies targeted at 3 broad health personnel categories. CONCLUSIONS: The competencies can be applied to a wide range of health professionals who are expected to perform at different levels (informed worker/student, practitioner, leader) according to experience, professional role, level of education, or job function. Although these competencies strongly reflect lessons learned following the health system response to Hurricane Katrina, it must be understood that preparedness is a process, and that these competencies must be reviewed continually and refined over time.

Vulnerability of populations and the urban health care systems to nuclear weapon attack--examples from four American cities.

BACKGROUND: The threat posed by the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) within the United States has grown significantly in recent years, focusing attention on the medical and public health disaster capabilities of the nation in a large scale crisis. While the hundreds of thousands or millions of casualties resulting from a nuclear weapon would, in and of itself, overwhelm our current medical response capabilities, the response dilemma is further exacerbated in that these resources themselves would be significantly at risk. There are many limitations on the resources needed for mass casualty management, such as access to sufficient hospital beds including specialized beds for burn victims, respiration and supportive therapy, pharmaceutical intervention, and mass decontamination. RESULTS: The effects of 20 kiloton and 550 kiloton nuclear detonations on high priority target cities are presented for New York City, Chicago, Washington D.C. and Atlanta. Thermal, blast and radiation effects are described, and affected populations are calculated using 2000 block level census data. Weapons of 100 Kts and up are primarily incendiary or radiation weapons, able to cause burns and start fires at distances greater than they can significantly damage buildings, and to poison populations through radiation injuries well downwind in the case of surface detonations. With weapons below 100 Kts, blast effects tend to be stronger than primary thermal effects from surface bursts. From the point of view of medical casualty treatment and administrative response, there is an ominous pattern where these fatalities and casualties geographically fall in relation to the location of hospital and administrative facilities. It is demonstrated that a staggering number of the main hospitals, trauma centers, and other medical assets are likely to be in the fatality plume, rendering them essentially inoperable in a crisis. CONCLUSION: Among the consequences of this outcome would be the probable loss of command-and-control, mass casualties that will have to be treated in an unorganized response by hospitals on the periphery, as well as other expected chaotic outcomes from inadequate administration in a crisis. Vigorous, creative, and accelerated training and coordination among the federal agencies tasked for WMD response, military resources, academic institutions, and local responders will be critical for large-scale WMD events involving mass casualties.

Prediction modeling to determine the adequacy of medical response to urban nuclear attack.

BACKGROUND: Government reports have persistently indicated the intent of terrorists and hostile nations to acquire and "weaponize" nuclear materials for deliberate attack on a major US metropolitan city. METHODS: A modeling analysis of the effects of 20- and 550-kiloton nuclear detonations on the 2 major metropolitan centers of Los Angeles and Houston is presented with a focus on thermal casualties. Brode's work as modified by Binninger was used to calculate thermal fluence, using thermal fractions. The EM-1 and WE programs were used to calculate blast effects. Fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability V404SP4 with "urban effects" turned on. The ESRI ArcView program calculated affected populations from 2000 US Census block-level data for areas affected by thermal effects. RESULTS: The population affected by a 550-kiloton nuclear weapon detonated in Los Angeles and Houston is staggering: surviving thermal casualties are estimated at 185,000 and 59,000, respectively. Even the 20-kiloton detonations in Los Angeles and Houston are significant: the numbers of surviving thermal casualties requiring care exceed 28,000 and 10,000, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The surviving health care community postdetonation would be faced with an unprecedented burden of care for thermal casualties. A great expansion of personnel involved in emergency burn care response is critical. Bold, new approaches such as regionalization and predetermined medical air transport need to be considered.

Biological half-life and oxidative stress effects in mice with low-level, oral exposure to tritium.

Tritium ((3)H) may enter the environment from human activities, particularly at production, processing, or waste storage sites such as the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site, a former nuclear production facility in South Carolina. Understanding the dynamics and potential adverse effects of tritium in exposed organisms is critical to evaluating risks of tritium releases at such sites. Previous studies estimated the biological half-life of tritium in mice to be approximately 1.13 d; however, these laboratory studies were not conducted under environmentally realistic conditions. In this study, designed to be more representative of environmental exposure, mice were allowed to drink water containing tritium (activity about 300 Bq/ml) for a period of 2 wk. The induction of oxidative stress from tritium exposure was evaluated by comparing the activities of antioxidant enzymes (catalase, glutathione peroxidase, and superoxide dismutase) in exposed and control mice. From this experiment, the biological half-life of tritium was determined to be 2.26 +/- 0.04 d, almost double previous estimates. While positive controls (x-ray irradiated mice) showed responses in antioxidant enzyme activity, there was no indication of oxidative stress induction in mice exposed to tritium at this concentration.

Rodents as receptor species at a tritium disposal site.

New methods are being employed on the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site to deal with the disposal of tritium, including the irrigation of a hardwood/pine forest with tritiated water from an intercepted contaminant plume to reduce concentrations of tritium outcropping into Fourmile Branch, a tributary of the Savannah River. The use of this system has proven to be an effective means of tritium disposal. To evaluate the impact of this activity on terrestrial biota, rodent species were captured on the tritium disposal site and a control site during two trapping seasons in order to assess tritium exposure resulting from the forest irrigation. Control site mice had background levels of tritium, 0.02 Bq/mL, with disposal site mice having significantly higher tritium concentrations, mean=34.86 Bq/mL. Whole body tritium concentrations of the mice captured at the disposal site were positively correlated with tritium application and negatively correlated with precipitation at the site.

Plasma binding of trichloroacetic acid in mice, rats, and humans under cancer bioassay and environmental exposure conditions.

Trichloroacetic acid (TCA), a mouse liver carcinogen, is a drinking water contaminant and a metabolite of solvents such as trichloroethylene and perchloroethylene. Because acidic drugs are often bound more strongly to human than to rodent plasma proteins, a study was undertaken to determine whether this was the case for TCA and to clarify the mechanistic bases for species differences. Equilibrium dialysis was used to measure in vitro binding of a range of TCA concentrations to plasma of humans, rats, and mice. Plots of observed data for free versus bound TCA concentrations were compared with simulations from each of three binding models: a single saturable site model; a saturable plus nonsaturable site model; and a two-saturable site model. Dissociation values (Kd) did not differ significantly from one species to another, but N (number of binding sites/molecule) ranged from 2.97 for humans to 0.17 for mice. Binding capacities (Bmax) for humans, rats, and mice were 709, 283, and 29 microM, respectively. The greater plasma protein binding of TCA in humans would be expected to not only increase the residence time of the compound in the bloodstream, but to substantially reduce the proportion of TCA that is available for uptake by the liver and other tissues. Species differences in the bound fraction diminished at very low, environmentally relevant TCA concentrations, but the percentage bound increased markedly. These findings suggest that the practice of using total blood levels of TCA as a dose metric in interspecies extrapolation of cancer risks needs to be re-examined.